On Monday, November 5, the Grand River Conservation Authority issued a High Lake Erie Level Warning for areas along the Grand River downstream of the Dunnville Dam, in the village of Port Maitland and along the lakeshore.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry surge model forecast for the eastern end of Lake Erie is predicting lake levels to reach just below critical levels on Tuesday. A surface low pressure system is set to traverse the province bringing strong winds to the Lower Great Lakes Region on Tuesday and Wednesday. These winds have the potential to cause a lake surge combined with high waves which may cause localized shoreline flooding on Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Strong south-southwest winds in the 45 to 50 km/h range are expected to begin on Tuesday afternoon and persist until Wednesday afternoon, with gusts up to 90 km/h possible. Lake Erie levels are forecast to rise Tuesday morning before peaking Tuesday afternoon between approximately 4:00 and 9:00 p.m. Lake levels are forecast to rise 0.7 metres above the current level, accompanied by waves of up to 1.5 metres.
In the vicinity of Port Maitland the following forecast applies:
Lake Erie current elevation at Port Maitland: 174.7 m (IGLD 1985)
Lake Erie estimated to peak at: 175.4 m (IGLD 1985), excluding waves
Critical Level: 175.5 m (IGLD 1985)
Forecast (estimated) Peak Lake Level: 0.1 m below critical levels, excluding waves
Haldimand County OPP and municipal staff will monitor roads along the lakeshore Tuesday afternoon and implement closures as necessary.
Updated flood messages will be issued as conditions develop and better forecast information becomes available. Residents are encouraged to monitor the Grand River Conservation Authority & Haldimand County websites and social media accounts for the most up-to-date flood and weather warning information.